rosy739-stg
@7393com
Brent Donnelly
President of Spectra Markets
So tech is down a lot. Crypto is down a lot. And gold and silver have held in well. ... So you have lower Bitcoin, lower stocks, and a stronger dollar, and gold is actually trading pretty well. ... I think I might do something in gold next week. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaChallengesGold remained resilient despite a stronger dollar and declines in stocks and cryptocurrencies, weakening the short-term bearish case; he is considering trading gold next week.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
Goldman Sachs cuts its gold targets following the Fed's hawkish shift: ... End-2026: $4,150, down from $4,650 ... Despite near-term pressure, the bank forecasts 60 tonnes of monthly central bank purchases, supporting approximately 15% upside by end-2027. x.com
AlvaMixedThe end-2026 target was lowered from $4,650 to $4,150, supporting a short-term bearish outlook; however, expected central bank gold purchases of 60 tonnes per month, supporting an approximately 15% rise by the end of 2027, provide longer-term support.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
Friday's US jobs report could reshape Fed rate expectations. ... Markets price nearly 80% probability of a 25bp Fed hike in December. ... Strong jobs + firm wages → USD/yields potentially higher. ... Weak jobs + softer wages → Dovish repricing, potentially supportive for gold. x.com
AlvaMixedThe consensus for nonfarm payrolls is an increase of 65,000, with wages rising 0.3% month over month; strong employment and wage data could lift the dollar and yields, weighing on gold, while dovish repricing triggered by weak data could support gold prices.James Steel
Chief Precious Metals Analyst at HSBC
If we are going to go up, which I think is likely to continue, then it's on fairly firm ground. youtube.com
AlvaChallengesThe view that gold prices will continue to rise has weakened the short-term bearish outlook; recent long positions have been cleared out, leaving room for further gains.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
Following the midterm results, December Fed hike odds have fallen from above 80% to 67%. ... Prediction markets now put the chance of a hold at 33%, its highest since mid-September. x.com
AlvaChallengesThe probability of a rate hike in December has fallen from above 80% to 67%, meaning expectations of tightening pressure have eased and weakening the interest-rate rationale for a short-term bearish outlook on gold.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
Federal Reserve official Beth Hammack says US monetary policy needs to become more restrictive, warning that inflation remains too high and is moving in the wrong direction. ... Hammack argues that gradual interest-rate increases offer the best path back to the Fed's 2% inflation target, while minimizing disruption to the economy and financial system. x.com
AlvaSupportsTighter monetary policy and expectations of gradual interest-rate hikes increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, supporting a short-term bearish outlook.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
US Oct final services PMI 56.1 (57.9 flash, 58.8 Sep) ... US Oct final composite PMI 55.9 (57.6 flash, 58.4 Sep) x.com
AlvaMixedThe services and composite PMIs remain in expansion territory, supporting the bearish case for economic resilience; however, the final readings came in below the preliminary readings and the previous month, indicating slower growth and weakening the case for keeping interest rates high.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
YIELD ON 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE LAST UP 5.36 BASIS POINTS AT 4.948% ... TWO-YEAR U.S. TREASURY YIELDS LAST UP 3.13 BASIS POINTS AT 4.614% x.com
AlvaSupportsYields on U.S. Treasuries at both the short and long ends rose in tandem, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and supporting a short-term bearish view.
Joe Weisenthal
Co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast
Very solid economic data this morning. Nice jump in job openings and quits. Factory orders/Durable goods came in strong. x.com
AlvaSupportsRising job openings and quits, along with strong factory and durable-goods orders, reinforce economic resilience and weaken the case for near-term rate cuts, supporting the view that gold will face pressure in the short term.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
JPMorgan warns that renewed US-Iran conflict after the midterm elections could trigger an equity selloff and another oil price spike. ... The bank remains bullish on banks, industrials, commodities and semiconductors, while viewing gold's recent pullback as an opportunity to add exposure. x.com
AlvaChallengesViewing gold’s recent pullback as an opportunity to add to positions is counterevidence to a short-term bearish view.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS GAINS, UP NEARLY 2% TO $3,950.37/OZ x.com
AlvaChallengesGold prices rose nearly 2% in the short term, contrary to the short-term bearish view.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October, beating the 54.5 consensus and September's 54.5 reading. ... Prices Paid: 75.2 vs. 77.5 expected, down from 77.9. x.com
AlvaMixedManufacturing expansion was stronger than expected, supporting rates staying higher for longer and weighing on gold; however, prices paid came in below expectations and declined from the previous month, easing pressure for further tightening and weakening the short-term bearish case.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Rene M. Kern Practice Professor at Wharton
While gold and Bitcoin fell, government bonds rallied strongly as US 10-year yields declined by 36 bps, the largest monthly drop since 2023. x.com
AlvaMixedGold still fell even as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined by 36 basis points month over month, indicating price weakness; however, the retreat in yields lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, weakening rising interest rates as a bearish rationale.
Nick Timiraos
Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, Author of Trillion Dollar Triage
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan explains her support for this week's Fed decision alongside her continued view the Fed needs to make two more hikes. x.com
AlvaSupportsSupporting this pause while still advocating two more rate hikes reinforces expectations of continued tightening after the pause, supporting the view that gold will remain under pressure in the short term.Nick Timiraos
Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, Author of Trillion Dollar Triage
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: "I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon." x.com
AlvaSupportsTighter monetary policy could push up real interest rates and support the dollar, thereby reinforcing the rationale for short-term pressure on gold.
Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab
September core PCE #inflation came in hot on a 3-month annualized basis ... +2.9% vs. +2.2% prior x.com
AlvaSupportsThe three-month annualized growth rate of core PCE rose from 2.2% to 2.9%, reinforcing the view that inflation is sticky and interest rates will remain high, which supports the case for near-term pressure on gold.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
SPOT GOLD EXTENDS LOSSES, DOWN 3% TO $3,908.13/OZ x.com
AlvaSupportsSpot gold’s decline widened to 3%, directly reinforcing the short-term bearish view.Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
DALLAS FED'S TRIMMED MEAN PCE PRICE INDEX +2.8% ANNUALIZED IN SEPTEMBER VS AUGUST +2.0% x.com
AlvaSupportsThe annualized growth rate of trimmed-mean PCE rose from 2.0% to 2.8%, indicating increased underlying inflationary pressure and supporting the view that interest rates will remain elevated and gold will face short-term pressure.Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab
Odds of a second rate hike at next month’s Fed meeting now at 86%, per @CMEGroup FedWatch Tool x.com
AlvaSupportsCME FedWatch shows an 86% probability of a rate hike at the next meeting, reinforcing market expectations that interest rates will remain restrictive and supporting near-term pressure on gold.Nick Timiraos
Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, Author of Trillion Dollar Triage
Prices of core PCE services ex-housing rose 0.37% in September, pushing the 12-month change to 3.6% and matching the highest such reading since 2024. ... If core goods prices rise like this going forward, there will need to be more services disinflation for the Fed to achieve its 2% target. x.com
AlvaSupportsHigh services inflation and firm core goods prices make achieving the 2% inflation target more difficult, supporting the view that interest rates will remain elevated and gold will face near-term pressure.