vernon
@vernon
James A Burke
President & CEO of Vistra
Moving to the near-term outlook, we are introducing guidance ranges for 2027 adjusted EBITDA of $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion and 2027 adjusted free cash flow before growth of $4.3 billion to $5.1 billion, including the expected contribution from the Cogentrix acquisition and the power purchase agreement with Meta for the operating capacity at our Perry nuclear plant.
AlvaSupportsMeta has signed a power purchase agreement for operating capacity at the Perry nuclear power plant, which is expected to contribute to Vistra’s results starting in 2027, supporting the electricity supply needed for its computing capacity expansion.
Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Analyst at SemiAnalysis
Arm QSep26 ... Meta is the lead CPU customer and multiple customers beyond Meta x.com
AlvaSupportsMeta is the primary customer for Arm’s CPU business, indicating that its server chip procurement has expanded to include direct supply from Arm and supporting the view that its computing supply sources are broadening.
Teddy Schleifer
New York Times journalist covering billionaires and power
[Washington Post: "Voters in at least 38 jurisdictions across the country passed bans or restrictions on data centers on Tuesday."] And, clearly, a lot of Americans in 38 different places at least feel the same way. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaChallengesAt least 38 localities in the United States have adopted data center bans or restrictions, showing that local opposition has turned into concrete constraints and increased the site-selection and permitting risks for Meta’s expansion of AI computing infrastructure.Sravan Kundojjala
Semiconductor Analyst at SemiAnalysis
[Replying to @379092222: "AMD 3Q26"] First Helios and MI455X revenue in 3Q. Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OAI and Oracle; 2027 ramp x.com
AlvaSupportsMeta was listed as a customer for AMD Helios and MI455X, with the products generating their first revenue in the third quarter, supporting the expansion of its AI computing supply; a ramp-up in 2027 remains an expectation.
Elon Musk
CEO of Tesla and SpaceX
[Quoting @294293982: "SpaceXAI’s Colossus 2 in Memphis is the world’s most powerful AI data center."] The other supercompute projects are unable to reach their goals, but SpaceX is already achieving ours x.com
AlvaChallengesMusk said SpaceX has achieved its supercomputer project goals, while other projects have fallen short, suggesting that competitors may be gaining an edge in deploying AI computing capacity and weakening Meta’s infrastructure advantage.
Liz Ann Sonders
Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab
For all the forward-looking concern about fate of data centers, reality is already with us: data center project cancellations in 3Q alone were almost larger than entirety of 2025 and 2024 combined x.com
AlvaChallengesData center project cancellations in the third quarter were close to the combined full-year total for 2024 and 2025, suggesting that demand for AI infrastructure may be cooling and increasing the risk of excess capacity, weakening expectations that Meta’s AI investments will drive growth.
Walter Bloomberg
Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics
Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley warns that AI infrastructure investment could exceed $10 trillion, potentially creating massive overcapacity. ... AI infrastructure could require over $3 trillion in annual revenue to justify its investment costs. x.com
AlvaMixedBill Dudley warns that investment in AI infrastructure could exceed $10 trillion and would require more than $3 trillion in annual revenue to justify the investment, increasing the risk of excess capacity and inadequate returns on Meta’s AI investment.
Jeff Pu
Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities
•FCF strain (Amazon still spending, Alphabet TPU builds, Oracle turning positive in 2H28 by cutting capex, Meta potentially negative) drives 2028 capex growth down to +16% YoY x.com
AlvaChallengesJeff Pu expects Meta may experience negative free cash flow as it comes under pressure from AI investment, highlighting the financial strain from high capital expenditures and weakening the bullish view that profitability and cash flow will improve.
Olivia Moore
Partner at Andreessen Horowitz
more than 500M SMBs use Meta for marketing. If Meta gives agent discoverability (preferred or not) to that SMB base, it could be a huge boost, especially for local businesses who can hyper-target users with urgent purchase needs x.com
AlvaSupportsMore than 500 million small and medium-sized businesses use Meta for marketing. If Muse provides these merchants with agent discovery and connectors, it could expand Meta’s monetization opportunities in shopping and merchant activity.
SemiAnalysis
Independent Semiconductor and AI Research Firm
Today we’re releasing GDPx, a benchmark for measuring agentic capabilities across the most valuable domains. ... GDPx is a true frontier-level benchmark: even the best model scores just 12% (1/7) x.com
AlvaSupportsThe GDPx benchmark shows Muse Wonder Full scored 9.0%, below the leading model at 12.0% but above most models on the leaderboard, providing limited support for Meta’s competitiveness in agentic AI.Ranjan Roy
VP, Industry Lead for Retail at WRITER, Co-author of Margins
Meta, their ads format is not going anywhere. It's only gonna get more and more valuable. People are still gonna scroll through Instagram and Facebook and see ads within there. So actually, more thinking about it, that open ecosystem of advertising is probably the most ready to be disrupted already, whereas it puts Meta and Amazon in a much better position. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaSupportsMeta’s closed advertising ecosystem is more resilient to AI disruption than advertising that depends on open-web traffic, supporting the view that its advertising model will retain its value and continue to grow.
Mohamed A. El-Erian
Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Rene M. Kern Practice Professor at Wharton
The widening CDS spreads detailed in this table (H/T @zerohedge via LS) illustrates how markets are differentiating across names, notwithstanding the broader macro derisking in the AI trade. x.com
AlvaChallengesMeta’s five-year CDS spread widened 52% in six months, indicating increased market concern about its credit risk and weakening the outlook for financing AI investment.Mohamed A. El-Erian
Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Rene M. Kern Practice Professor at Wharton
Sharp selloffs on even relatively minor earnings blemishes show investors have now pivoted to applying much greater scrutiny to AI capex, funding needs, monetization, and ROI. ... This frisson in markets is not translating in a reassessment of the tech-led growth outlook, at least as of now. x.com
AlvaMixedMarkets are beginning to scrutinize AI capital expenditure, financing needs, monetization, and returns on investment more closely, putting pressure on Meta’s AI investments; however, the outlook for technology-driven growth has not yet been reassessed, so the impact is mixed.Mandeep Singh
Global Head of Technology Research at Bloomberg Intelligence
And Meta has released a new model, which is why the sentiment has changed completely on Meta. ... Because they released Muse and it was powered by their latest model, which is at the frontier. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaSupportsMuse uses Meta’s frontier models, supporting the view that Meta has stronger product capabilities in the consumer AI competition.
Cathie Wood
ARK Invest founder, CEO and chief investment officer
We did get some new information regarding Muse, their AI agent product, which is at 10 million installs, 2.5 million daily activives. And then of those two and a half daily activives, call it 1/4 are using it very frequently to do shopping on the internet, which is how Meta plans to monetize this for their consumer base over the longer term. youtube.com
AlvaSupportsMuse already has 10 million installs and 2.5 million daily active users, about a quarter of whom frequently use it for online shopping, providing early evidence of consumer adoption for Meta’s AI monetization path.
Joe Weisenthal
Co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast
Objectively remarkable chart. Even chips from 2020 are still seeing their rental value increase. x.com
AlvaSupportsThe value of GPU rentals continues to rise; even chips from 2020 are increasing in value, indicating strong demand for AI computing and supporting the view that Meta is increasing its investment in AI infrastructure.
FUNDA
Research Platform for Public Equity Investors
In both our GOOG Preview and META Preview, we specifically highlighted that Meta is taking North American ad budget share from Google in verticals such as travel, automotive, and financial services. ... This is also reflected in Meta’s earnings, with its North American growth accelerating by 10% this quarter. x.com
AlvaSupportsFUNDA points out that Meta is gaining a share of North American advertising budgets from Google in previously weaker verticals such as travel, automotive, and financial services, with North American growth accelerating 10% this quarter, supporting the view that the advertising business is improving.Dan Bin
Chairman of Shenzhen Oriental Harbor Investment; Chinese value investor
$98 billion means total shares outstanding will expand by 4.8% to 6.5%, turning Meta from an aggressive share-buyback company into a net equity issuer to fund AI expansion. ... Ongoing share issuance could limit expansion in valuation multiples, but will not trigger a major collapse in confidence, as the move is accompanied by a strong narrative around the launch of its Agentic AI “Muse Wonder,” while growth in the core advertising business and AI monetization remain robust. In the short term, the stock is expected to face some pressure xueqiu.com
AlvaMixedMeta’s $98 billion fundraising for AI expansion, expected to expand total shares outstanding by 4.8% to 6.5%, could weigh on valuation multiples and create short-term share-price pressure; however, growth in the advertising business and robust AI monetization make the fundamental impact mixed.
Jason Calacanis
LAUNCH founder and early-stage startup investor
All this hand-wringing over capex from Facebook, Microsoft, Google and other new entrants is unnecessary. ... Earnings will be absurd in the next five years, as companies like Microsoft, Uber, Tesla, Robinhood, and Meta have revenue per employee DOUBLE every 3-4 years. x.com
AlvaSupportsThis view holds that revenue and revenue per employee at companies such as Meta will double every 3 to 4 years, driving substantial earnings growth over the next five years. It also argues that high capital expenditures will not lead to overbuilding, supporting expectations for Meta's earnings growth.Diksha Gera
Senior Analyst for Global Payments and Fintech at Bloomberg Intelligence
So that's like a wild card that could actually position Visa in a very strong position if agentic commerce scales, given all the big AI companies are kind of pushing out and Muse showed that commerce was the biggest use case that Meta's customers were using it for. podcasts.apple.com
AlvaSupportsMuse's data shows that shopping is the primary use of Meta users when using its AI, supporting Meta AI's commercial potential, but it does not yet indicate user scale or revenue contribution.