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Sheer-Alva

@sheer-alva

6 Nov, 04:15Latest

I already hold Micron and am considering adding to my position, with a time horizon of the next 3–6 months. My working thesis is that MU may still have upside if AI memory demand continues to translate into orders, pricing and profit growth. But a low P/E ratio alone is not enough to justify adding; the key is whether earnings expectations are met, not whether the company is at a cyclical peak.

I will focus on HBM order fulfillment, DRAM/NAND pricing, and changes in inventory and capital expenditure. If demand weakens, prices turn down, or rising inventory is accompanied by downward revisions to earnings expectations, I will need to reassess the rationale for adding to my position.

Damnang

6 Nov, 19:40

Semiconductor Engineer in Silicon Valley, AI Chip Investment Research

That technology is intended to replace SRAM in certain applications. This is just my speculation, but I wonder whether the idea of stacking memory on top of logic got labeled “3D DRAM” and then interpreted as TSMC moving directly into the core market of existing DRAM manufacturers. ... For now, I think it is highly unlikely that TSMC will jump straight into commodity DRAM and compete with established manufacturers on cost per bit. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe inference is that the technology mainly replaces some SRAM rather than entering commodity DRAM directly, easing concerns that Micron could face a new competitor; this remains a technical assessment and has not been confirmed.

Walter Bloomberg

6 Nov, 16:28

Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics

OpenAI will keep investing in AI data centers despite election results, CFO tells CNBC x.com

AlvaSupportsContinued investment in data centers after the election eases concerns that major AI customers might scale back spending due to political changes, supporting the durability of memory demand that Micron relies on.

Joe Weisenthal

6 Nov, 14:11

Co-host of Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast

*TSMC mulls expanding into advanced memory chips: Information x.com

AlvaChallengesAccording to The Information, TSMC is considering entering the advanced memory chip sector, adding a potential competitive risk to the durability of Micron’s earnings; the plan has not yet been confirmed by the company.

Walter Bloomberg

6 Nov, 13:25

Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics

Yardeni Research says Thursday's sharp selloff was overdone, despite growing political opposition to AI infrastructure. ... Yardeni argues these obstacles are “just speed bumps” that could prevent the AI boom from overheating. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe view that political resistance to AI infrastructure mainly affects the pace of expansion and may curb overheating supports the judgment that the AI memory demand Micron depends on can continue.

Zephyr

6 Nov, 11:36

AI & Semiconductor Analyst at Citrini Research

[Quoting @1836240683268759552: "Taiwan’s KYEC lowered its Q4 guidance due to delays affecting a major GPU, believed to be NVIDIA’s Rubin, caused by HBM4 yield issues at a memory supplier."] SK Hynix (mostly) and Micron dragged Rubin shipments down and slowed down the ramp x.com

AlvaChallengesThe analyst attributes the slowdown in Rubin shipments and ramp-up primarily to SK hynix and Micron, undermining confidence in Micron’s near-term HBM deliveries and revenue realization; this attribution has not been confirmed by the company.

Jukan

6 Nov, 11:32

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini

Taiwan’s KYEC lowered its Q4 guidance due to delays affecting a major GPU, believed to be NVIDIA’s Rubin, caused by HBM4 yield issues at a memory supplier. x.com

AlvaChallengesKYEC lowered its fourth-quarter guidance due to GPU delays, signaling that HBM4 yields could slow deliveries and increase industry risk around the pace of Micron’s HBM order fulfillment; the attribution involving Rubin remains speculative.

Jeff Pu

6 Nov, 00:54

Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities

• Prefer MU (US + better HBM4 pricing) and SKHY (valuation + returns) ... • HBM4 2027 pricing ~$4.5–5.5/Gb (vs ~$2.6 in 2026) ... • DRAM pricing +12%/+10% QoQ in 4Q26/1Q27 x.com

AlvaSupportsIts preference for Micron and expectations for HBM4 pricing and rising DRAM prices support the view that AI memory demand is translating into stronger pricing, thereby underpinning earnings growth; these remain analyst forecasts.

Jukan

5 Nov, 09:16

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini

Apparently, Micron scrapped plans for another fab in Taiwan because its union there was asking for too much in bonuses lol. ... The fab was supposed to come online in 2028. ... So that’s less supply hitting the market in 2028. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe attached Bloomberg report says construction at Micron's Taiwan plant has been paused due to a labor dispute, which could delay additional supply and ease subsequent pricing pressure; the pause does not mean capacity has been permanently canceled.

Walter Bloomberg

6 Nov, 00:20

Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics

UBS estimates 30% of planned US data-center capacity additions in 2028 could be at risk from construction pauses following Democrats’ midterm victory. x.com

AlvaChallengesAn estimated 30% of the data center capacity planned to be added in the U.S. in 2028 is at risk of construction pauses, increasing uncertainty over delays or cuts to associated server and memory purchases.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

5 Nov, 21:22

Founder and CEO of Positive Sum and Colossus; host of Invest Like the Best

Ben Thompson (@benthompson) ... "I'm worried about the timing mismatch in terms of the actual return on investment producing enough revenue to fuel investment. ... Ideally we actually flip back to free cash flow funding this, but if there's a gap there, if we don't get there soon enough, then we could have a big blowup. x.com

AlvaChallengesIf returns on AI investment cannot quickly replace external financing, even strong demand for computing power could interrupt subsequent investment, weakening expectations that sustained memory demand will translate into purchases and profit growth.

Jukan

5 Nov, 02:59

Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Research at Citrini

Meritz Securities (South Korea): ... This year, the memory order fulfillment rate—available supply capacity relative to order volume—has remained in the low-to-mid 80% range, driving sharp increases in selling prices. The shortage is expected to worsen in 2027, with the fulfillment rate falling to around 80%. x.com

AlvaSupportsThe expected fulfillment rate of supply relative to orders is projected to fall to about 80% next year, reinforcing the view that memory order demand exceeds capacity and that shortages will continue to support selling prices.

Mandeep Singh

4 Nov, 17:49

Global Head of Technology Research at Bloomberg Intelligence

I'm a little concerned about memory right now, given what's going on with the CapEx outlook. ... And everyone thought higher memory prices is why CapEx numbers were going up. So if CapEx is more spread out, that could have a bearing on memory and those type of segments. podtrac.com

AlvaChallengesIf data center capital spending slows or becomes more dispersed, it could weigh on memory-related demand, posing risks to the realization of future orders and pricing; the impact remains conditional.

Walter Bloomberg

4 Nov, 12:02

Financial news account covering global markets, economic data and geopolitics

Goldman Sachs warns that Democratic victories at state and local levels could trigger temporary data-center construction moratoria. ... 45% of planned US data-center capacity could be affected. ... However, Goldman expects any moratoria to be short-lived, with political pressure easing over time. x.com

AlvaChallengesIf local election results trigger a pause in construction, they could affect 45% of planned data center capacity in the U.S., increasing the risk of delays in server and memory procurement; the pause measures are expected to be short-lived.

Mark P Long

3 Nov, 22:00

Senior Vice President & CFO of Super Micro Computer

Based on our current backlog, we expect AI-related solutions to represent approximately 70% to 80% of revenue for fiscal 2027.

AlvaSupportsBased on its existing backlog, Supermicro expects AI solutions to account for 70%–80% of full-year revenue, increasing visibility into server growth being supported by AI orders and providing indirect support for related memory demand.

Lisa Su

3 Nov, 22:00

AMD chair and CEO

But given where the memory market is and not just the memory market, other component costs are also seeing some inflationary pressures as there's more CapEx that's put into the overall supply chain environment, we are also working with our customers to ensure that those costs are shared as we go forward.

AlvaSupportsRising costs for memory and other components are prompting AMD to share costs with customers, strengthening evidence that memory pricing pressure has spread to the AI chip supply chain.

Philip G Brace

3 Nov, 21:30

CEO & President of Skyworks Solutions

The memory shortages, the Android market, there's just been a lot of turbulence in that space, and that's been pretty well talked about for many years. So I would say that we've seen an increased deceleration in that part of the business, which ultimately isn't bad actually. It's a richer mix of business.

AlvaMixedThe Android business slowed further amid disruptions such as memory shortages, reflecting tight supply while also increasing the risk that end-market demand could be hurt, weighing on non-AI memory procurement.

Lisa Su

3 Nov, 22:00

structured

We've absolutely spent a significant amount of time with our customers planning what their needs are in terms of their deployments and their deployment schedules, and also with our supply chain partners to ensure that we have the wafers, the substrates, the advanced packaging, the memory, and all of the other components that go along with it. It is true that demand is higher than supply, so we continue to work with our supply chain partners to increase supply.

AlvaSupportsAMD is coordinating the supply of components such as memory in line with customers’ deployment plans, and says overall demand exceeds supply, strengthening the evidence that AI expansion is translating into supply-chain procurement arrangements.

Anurag Rana

3 Nov, 17:57

Senior Technology Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

Over the last six to nine months, we've been talking about the impact of higher memory prices. So far, Apple's executed very well. They've been able to offset a lot of that stuff. But it seems now with their guidance that they will see the impact of those higher input costs. We don't think this is going to be a one-quarter issue. I think this is going to be the big deal over the next 12 months for them. podtrac.com

AlvaSupportsThe impact of rising memory costs on Apple’s profits is expected to persist for about a year, strengthening expectations that memory prices will remain strong in the coming months, supporting suppliers’ revenue and profits.

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

3 Nov, 22:00

Provider of Server, Storage and Networking Solutions

Based on what we see today, we are anticipate our fiscal 2027 revenue target will be in that range of $72 billion to $82 billion. That is about 12% higher than the target we set one quarter ago.

AlvaSupportsSuper Micro raised its fiscal 2027 revenue target by about 12% from the previous quarter, strengthening evidence that server demand is translating into business growth and providing indirect support for demand for complementary memory.

Jeff Pu

4 Nov, 09:56

Technology Equity Analyst at GF Securities

Apple (AAPL US) ... Memory cost inflation expected to last through CY2027; x.com

AlvaSupportsThe expected increase in Apple's memory costs is set to continue throughout 2027, reinforcing the view that memory pricing will remain supported in the coming months, benefiting Micron's revenue and profits.

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